Fran Pavley (D)
OPEN SEAT IN 2016
U.S. Senator '12
Secretary of State '14
State Senate '12
DISTRICT MAP |
Permanent vote-by-mail voters: 37%
Ethnic voter registration: Latino 14%; Asian 7%
VOTER REGISTRATION/TURNOUT (LAST 4 CYCLES):
P12: Dem 40.08%; Rep 34.76%; NPP 20.05%; TURNOUT: 28.06%; Total Registered: 499,442
G12: Dem 40.91%; Rep 33.78%; NPP 18.74%; TURNOUT: 72.13%; Total Registered: 526,970
P14: Dem 40.67%; Rep 32.39%; NPP 18.13%; TURNOUT: 21.42%; Total Registered: 537,448
G14: Dem 40.56%; Rep 32.08%; NPP 22.14%; TURNOUT: 40.03%; Total Registered: 537,612
Pavley was born and raised in the San Fernando Valley, but has for over 30 years resided in Agoura Hills, which she helped found. She served as the city’s first mayor. She was also an eighth grade history teacher for 28 years. In 1995, Pavley was appointed to the CA Coastal Commission by Sen. Bill Lockyer and reappointed by Sen. John Burton. Her husband, Andy, is a teacher; they have two adult children.
CAMPAIGN 2016: Democratic incumbent Fran Pavley is termed out in 2016. One Republican and five Democrats ran in the primary to succeed her. With no other Republican running, the top vote-getter in the primary was businessman and L.A. Fire Commissioner Steve Fazio. The owner of a chain of dry cleaners, Fazio raised over $617,000 during the primary and claimed 37.13% of the vote. The race for the one Democratic ticket out of the top-two primary became a hard-fought battle among a number a well-funded candidates. Henry Stern, an environmental attorney who served as Pavley's senior policy adviser, entered the race early on and jumped out to an early fundraising lead, eventually raising over $950,000 ahead of the primary. Initially, his chief competitor appeared to be Shwan Bayliss, the Director of Planning & Land Use for L.A. Councilman Paul Koretz. Bayliss reported raising $402,000 in 2015. In early 2016, however, the dynamics of the race flipped when non-profit director Janice Kamenir-Reznik jumped into the race. Reznik poached several endorsements that had previously gone to Stern and began raising money at a brisk pace, quickly accumulating over $933,000, including $220,000 from her own pocket. Reznik received close to $300,000 in supportive independent expenditure spending from the CA Dental Association and the CA Apartment Association. After Stern began taking fire from over $229,000 in negative IE spending (including $179,000 from the CA Association of Realtors), Million More Voters, an IE funded by the California Labor Federation entered the fray less than 3 weeks before the primary and poured over $463,000 into the race to boost Stern. In the end, Stern prevailed and claimed the number two spot with 27.3% of the vote, while Kamenir-Reznik finished a distant third with 19.22%. Fourth place went to Moorpark Councilman David Pollock, who raised $189,000 and finished with 7.33% of the vote. Despite prolific fundraising surpassing $500,000 and an additional $79,000 worth of support from an IE funded by financial professionals, developers, and other business groups, Bayliss finished with just 6.09% of the vote. George Christopher Thomas, a newspaper publisher and president of the Van Nuys Neighborhood Council, reported raising no money and finished last with 2.93% of the vote. In 2012, Democrats held a 5.32% voter registration advantage over Republicans. That number has nearly doubled to 10.22% this year. While the terrain favors Stern, the energy industry has not shied away from waging an all-out war against environmentalist Democrats this year, and Stern is almost certain to be in their crosshairs and Fazio could be positioned to benefit. Turnout in the primary will be at least 39.43%.
Independent Expenditure Activity (Updated 06-03): TOTAL IE SPENDING $1,067,081.29
Committee in Support of Shawn Bayliss for CA State Senate 2016 $79,504.76 IN SUPPORT OF Shawn Bayliss
California Dental Association Independent Expenditure PAC $186,960.95 IN SUPPORT OF Janice Kamenir-Reznik
California Dental Association Independent Expenditure PAC $49,497.09 IN OPPOSITION TO Henry Stern
California Apartment Association Independent Expenditure Committee $107,514.45 IN SUPPORT OF Janice Kamenir-Reznik
CALIFORNIA REAL ESTATE INDEPENDENT EXPENDITURE COMMITTEE - CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS $179,771.97 IN OPPOSITION TO HENRY STERN
Million More Voters, Sponsored by the California Labor Federation, AFL-CIO $463,832.07 IN SUPPORT OF Henry Stern
GOP Asm. Cameron Smyth took a serious look at running for the Senate seat, but decided against it. The Senate Republican leadership, wishing to target this race, recruited Los Angeles County deputy district attorney Todd Zink to run. Pavley and Zink were the only two candidates enter the June Primary, and to the surprise of many, Zink outpolled Pavley 51% - 49%.
The race between the two did become a top target, with both the Democratic and Republican Senate leaderships pulling out all stops to fund their candidates. Pavley was able to raise and spend over $2.8 million, Zink, $2 million. Several independent expenditure committees played in this race spending a combined $2 million in support of or opposition to the candidates.
At the end, Pavley won the race by a decisive margin, mirroring the margins the district gave Obama and Feinstein.
Pavley’s campaign consultants: SG& A Campaigns (Parke Skelton, Steve Barkan); polling: Goodwin Simon Victoria Research.
- California Teachers Association IE, funded in part by CA Teachers Assoc., Assoc. for a Better Citizenship and the American Federation of State, County and Muni Employees IEC, spent $611,554 for TV ads and research in SUPPORT of Pavley
- California Alliance, A Coalition of Consumer Attorneys and Conservationists, spent $80,981 for mail, polling, and data in SUPPORT of Pavley
- CA League of Conservation Voters IE Committee spent $28,000 for polling in SUPPORT of Pavley
- Planned Parenthood Advocacy Project L.A. County Action Fund spent $7,318 for online ads in SUPPORT of Pavley
- Peace Officers Research Assoc. of CA (PORAC), funded in part by CA Statewide Law Enforcement Association IEC and CA Professional Firefighters PAC, spent $10,000 for slate cards in SUPPORT of Pavley
- California Statewide Law Enforcement Association (CSLEA) IEC spent $40,971 for slate cards in SUPPORT of Pavley
- California Professional Fire Fighters IE spent $2,988 in SUPPORT of Pavley
- Citizens Against Wasteful Spending/Californians, funded in part by CCPOA and Reform CA Now, which is funded in part by Chevron Corp. JobsPAC, CA Real Estate IEC, CA Dental Assoc., and Charles Munger, Jr.,spent $32,696 in SUPPORT of Zink
- CA Hispanic Chamber of Commerce IEC, funded by Reform California Now IEC, spent $7,443 in SUPPORT of Zink
- Truck Unit PAC, sponsored by the CA Trucking Assoc., spent $42,747 for mail, literature and a website in SUPPORT of Zink
- CA Small Business Action Committee, funded by CA NOW IEC and New Majority CA PAC, spent $3,836 for slate cards in SUPPORT of Zink
- CA Apartment Assoc. spent $79,741 for mailers in SUPPORT of Zink
- Independent Voter PAC, funded by CA NOW, which is funded in part by Chevron Corp., JobsPAC and CA Real Estate Assoc., spent $5,000 in SUPPORT of Zink
- Citizens Against Wasteful Spending/Californians Against Wasteful Spending spent $719,401 for a media and mailers in OPPOSITION to Pavley
- Truck Unit PAC sponsored by the CA Trucking Assoc. spent $28,379 in OPPOSITION to Pavley
- Californians for Civil Justice Reform PAC spent $83,871 for mail in OPPOSITION to Pavley
- CA Hispanic Chamber of Commerce IEC funded by Reform California Now IEC spent $22,330 for mail in OPPOSITION to Pavley
- California Alliance, A Coalition of Consumer Attorneys and Conservationists spent $132,577 for data, mail, and polling in OPPOSITION to Zink
- California Senior Advocates League PAC funded in part by JobsPAC, Chevron Corp., Athem Blue Cross, California Dental PAC (CalDPAC), and Charles Munger, Jr., spent $316,980 in OPPOSITION to Pavley
- Total IE Spending: $781,812 in SUPPORT of Pavley; $171,463 in SUPPORT of Zink; $1,142,582 in OPPOSITION to Pavley; $132,577 in OPPOSTION to Zink
California Tribal Business Alliance IE PAC spent $23,302 for mailers in SUPPORT of Pavley
- Independent Voter PAC funded by California NOW, which is funded in part by JobsPAC (CA Chamber of Commerce), CA Real Estate Assoc., Chevron Oil, and Phillip Morris USA Inc, spent $6,600 for literature in OPPOSITION to Pavley.
- The above IE spent $21,600 for mailers and web page in SUPPORT of Zink.
The most conservative portions of the district are along the 118 freeway in Ventura County, including the community of Simi Valley. The most liberal portions are Los Angeles neighborhoods of the San Fernando Valley at the opposite end of the district.
SD27 (Open Seat) - 6th Democrat Enters Race
Janice Kamenir-Reznik is the latest candidate to throw her hat into the ring in the increasingly crowded race to succeed Senator Fran Pavley, who is termed out of her 27th Senate District seat in 2016. Kamenir-Reznik is the founder of Jewish World Watch, a leading organization in the fight against genocide and mass atrocities. She previously practiced law as a partner with Jeffer, Mangels, Butler, and Marmaro. During the 1970s, she served as Executive Director of the Commission on Soviet Jewry for the Jewish Federation. She has served as the President of California Women Lawyers, as President of the California Women's Law Center, as a trustee of the Los Angeles County Bar and of the California State Bar's Trust Fund, and currently serves on the Los Angeles County Economy and Efficiency Commission. Senator Pavley recognized her as 2014 Woman of the Year for her 27th Senate District. She holds a bachelor's from UCLA, a masters in Social Work from USC, a masters in Jewish Nonprofit Management from Hebrew Union College, and a JD from UCLA. She resides in Encino with her husband, Benjamin. They have three grown children. Campaign Manager: Marc Litchman. She has been endorsed by former Los Angeles Supervisor Zev Yaroslavsky and Los Angeles Supervisor Sheila Kuehl, who both switched from endorsing Henry Stern after Kamenir-Reznik entered the race. Stern, senior policy advisor to Senator Pavley, still retains her endorsement. He recently reported raising over $680K at year's end, a figure that will likely place him at the head of the pack in fundraising terms. Other candidates in the race include Moorpark City Councilman
David Pollock, newspaper publisher George C. Thomas, software engineer and Democratic Party activist Richard Matthews, Shawn Bayliss, Director of Planning & Land Use for L.A. City Councilman Paul Koretz, and the lone Republican in the race, Steve Fazio, an L.A. Fire Commissioner. One other Democrat, Jim Dantona, Jr, the chief of staff to L.A. Council Member Nury Martinez, dropped out late last year. While this district has a Democratic bias during Presidential years, the fractured field will likely result in only one Democrat advancing from the top-two primary to face Fazio in November. For more on this district, click here.