California Target Book

27th Senate District
 
Fran Pavley (D)

TERM LIMIT: 2016

OPEN SEAT IN 2016


President '08
President '12
U.S. Senator '12
Controller '14
Obama (D)
McCain (R)
57%
40%
Obama (D-Inc)
Romney (R)
54%
43%
Feinstein (D-Inc)
Emken (R)
58%
42%
Yee (D)
Swearengin (R)
46%
54%
Governor '10
Governor '14
Secretary of State '14
State Senate '12
Brown (D)
Whitman (R)
47%
47%
Brown (D-Inc)
Kashkari (R)
53%
47%
Padilla (D) 
Peterson (R)
48%
52%
Pavley (D-Inc)
Zink (R)
54%
46%

LOCATION: Most (65%) of the voters reside in the western portions of Los Angeles County encompassing Malibu, Agoura Hills, Calabasas, Westlake Village, and a large portion of the San Fernando Valley, west of the 405 Freeway. Moves further west into Ventura County, encompassing Simi Valley and Thousand Oaks.
 
DISTRICT MAP
 | DISTRICT PROFILE


ETHNIC POPULATION (2010 Census): Latino 25%; Asian 11%; Black 3%; White (non-Hispanic) 58%


VOTER REGISTRATION (Jul '16) Dem 41.80%; Rep 31.28%; NPP 22.23% - Total Voters 535,536
    Permanent vote-by-mail voters: 37%
    Ethnic voter registration: Latino 14%; Asian 7%


VOTER REGISTRATION/TURNOUT (LAST 4 CYCLES):

P12: Dem 40.08%; Rep 34.76%; NPP 20.05%; TURNOUT: 28.06%; Total Registered: 499,442
G12: Dem 40.91%; Rep 33.78%; NPP 18.74%; TURNOUT: 72.13%; Total Registered: 526,970
P14: Dem 40.67%; Rep 32.39%; NPP 18.13%; TURNOUT: 21.42%; Total Registered: 537,448
G14: Dem 40.56%; Rep 32.08%; NPP 22.14%; TURNOUT: 40.03%; Total Registered: 537,612


INCUMBENT
Born: November 11, 1948
Term Limit: 2016
Committee memberships

FRAN PAVLEY served three terms in the Assembly and was termed out in 2008. In that year’s Democratic Primary for Senate, Pavley outpolled AsmLloyd Levine 66% - 34%. She then went on to an easy 67% - 27% win over Republican Rick Montaine of Calabasas. 

Pavley was born and raised in the San Fernando Valley, but has for over 30 years resided in Agoura Hills, which she helped found. She served as the city’s first mayor. She was also an eighth grade history teacher for 28 years. In 1995, Pavley was appointed to the CA Coastal Commission by Sen. Bill Lockyer and reappointed by Sen. John Burton. Her husband, Andy, is a teacher; they have two adult children.


INCUMBENT RATINGS: LCV 92; SC 100; PP 100; EQ 100; CLF 100; CTA 98; UDW 100; HS 100; LCC 93; CFC 86; CMTA 0; CCC 23.1; CTAX 23.08; HJTA 20; CRI 0; NRA 7; ACU 3


CAMPAIGN 2016: Democratic incumbent Fran Pavley is termed out in 2016. One Republican and five Democrats ran in the primary to succeed her. With no other Republican running, the top vote-getter in the primary was businessman and L.A. Fire Commissioner Steve Fazio. The owner of a chain of dry cleaners, Fazio raised over $617,000 during the primary and claimed 37.13% of the vote. The race for the one Democratic ticket out of the top-two primary became a hard-fought battle among a number a well-funded candidates. Henry Stern, an environmental attorney who served as Pavley's senior policy adviser, entered the race early on and jumped out to an early fundraising lead, eventually raising over $950,000 ahead of the primary. Initially, his chief competitor appeared to be Shwan Bayliss, the Director of Planning & Land Use for L.A. Councilman Paul Koretz. Bayliss reported raising $402,000 in 2015. In early 2016, however, the dynamics of the race flipped when non-profit director Janice Kamenir-Reznik jumped into the race. Reznik poached several endorsements that had previously gone to Stern and began raising money at a brisk pace, quickly accumulating over $933,000, including $220,000 from her own pocket. Reznik received close to $300,000 in supportive independent expenditure spending from the CA Dental Association and the CA Apartment Association. After Stern began taking fire from over $229,000 in negative IE spending (including $179,000 from the CA Association of Realtors), Million More Voters, an IE funded by the California Labor Federation entered the fray less than 3 weeks before the primary and poured over $463,000 into the race to boost Stern. In the end, Stern prevailed and claimed the number two spot with 27.3% of the vote, while Kamenir-Reznik finished a distant third with 19.22%. Fourth place went to Moorpark Councilman David Pollock, who raised $189,000 and finished with 7.33% of the vote. Despite prolific fundraising surpassing $500,000 and an additional $79,000 worth of support from an IE funded by financial professionals, developers, and other business groups, Bayliss finished with just 6.09% of the vote. George Christopher Thomas, a newspaper publisher and president of the Van Nuys Neighborhood Council, reported raising no money and finished last with 2.93% of the vote. In 2012, Democrats held a 5.32% voter registration advantage over Republicans. That number has nearly doubled to 10.22% this year. While the terrain favors Stern, the energy industry has not shied away from waging an all-out war against environmentalist Democrats this year, and Stern is almost certain to be in their crosshairs and Fazio could be positioned to benefit. Turnout in the primary will be at least 39.43%.

2016 Primary Ballot


Shawn Bayliss (D) Chief Legislative Deputy
Steve Fazio (R) Independent Small Businessman
Janice Kamenir-Reznik (D) Non-Profit Director
David Pollock (D) Councilmember/Small Businessperson 
Henry Stern (D) Educator/Environmental Attorney
George C Thomas (D) Council President/Publisher

HENRY STERN (D) is the senior policy adviser to outgoing Senator Pavley and the son of actor Daniel Stern.  The fourth-generation Californian is a Harvard graduate and holds a JD from UC Berkeley Law School. He lectures at UCLA and UC Berkeley, is a member of the Santa Monica Mountains Conservancy Advisory Committee, the Jewish Federation, the American Jewish Committee and the Truman National Security Project. He resides in Malibu. ENDORSEMENTS: Sen. Pavley. Campaign Consultants: Parke Skelton, Mike Shimpock, Steve Barkan (SG&A Campaigns); Polling: Ben Tulchin (Tulchin Research); Fundraising: Rhiannon See-Barnato (Bertolina & Barnato). Stern recently reported ending 2015 with over $680K raised, likely placing him at the head of the pack in fundraising.

DAVID POLLOCK (D), first elected to the Moorpark City Council in 2009, previously served on the Moorpark Unified School District’s Governing Board from 1994 to 2009.  He is the principal at Pollock Consulting, which provides business development support, strategic planning, and cost/benefit analysis to corporate clients. He is also known as a child actor, appearing in the 1976 film, Bad News Bears. He holds a bachelor’s from Pepperdine and an MBA from UCLA’s Anderson School.  He and his wife Diana have two adult children. Campaign Consultant: Eric Hogensen (HSG Campaigns)
GEORGE C. THOMAS (D) is the publisher of the Government Center Gazette & Van Nuys News Press, a paper with a current circulation of 12,000 per week.  He was elected to the Van Nuys Neighborhood Council in 2010 and successfully ran for Council President in 2012. He lives in Agoura Hills with his wife Joanne.       

SHAWN BAYLISS (D) was born and raised in a small town in southwest Ohio. Following his graduation for Ohio State University in 2004, he moved to Los Angeles. A third-generation land use professional, Bayless worked his way to be the Director of Planning & Land Use for Los Angeles Council Member Paul Koretz. Bayliss is responsible for all planning, environmental land use, and development issues in Council District Five, and is the Council office liaison and budget staffer to the Los Angeles Planning and Building & Safety Departments. He resides in Woodland Hills with his wife, Stacey, and their newborn son.  ENDORSEMENTS: Los Angeles Councilman Paul Koretz, Asm. Mike Gatto, Rep. Brad Sherman; Campaign Consultant: Josh Pulliam (JPM&M)
JANICE KAMENIR-REZNIK (D) is the founder of Jewish World Watch, a leading organization in the fight against genocide and mass atrocities. She previously practiced law as a partner with Jeffer, Mangels, Butler, and Marmaro. During the 1970s, she served as Executive Director of the Commission on Soviet Jewry for the Jewish Federation. She has served as the President of California Women Lawyers, as President of the California Women's Law Center, as a trustee of the Los Angeles County Bar and of the California State Bar's Trust Fund, and currently serves on the Los Angeles County Economy and Efficiency Commission. Senator Pavley recognized her as 2014 Woman of the Year for her 27th Senate District. She holds a bachelor's from UCLA, a masters in Social Work from USC, a masters in Jewish Nonprofit Management from Hebrew Union College, and a JD from UCLA. She resides in Encino with her husband, Benjamin. They have three grown children. ENDORSEMENTS: Former LA Supervisor Zev Yaraolovsky, Supervisor Sheila Kuehl (both had previously endorsed Stern), Sen. Dianne Feinstein, State Sen Hannah-Beth Jackson. Campaign Consultant: Julie Sandino-Areias (Sandino Consulting); Campaign Manager: Marc Litchman. 

STEVE FAZIO (R) is the owner of Fazio Cleaners, a laundry and dry cleaning company with nine locations in California and Nevada. He is also a member of the Los Angeles Fire Commission, appointed by then Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa. An LAPD reserve officer from 1981 to 2011, he was previously an executive in residence at Pepperdine University, where he also received his MBA and doctorate.  He serves on the Board of Governors for Cedars-Sinai, and currently resides in Woodland Hills with his wife, Nicole Drapking-Kluft.  He has two children. ENDORSEMENTS: House Majority Leader Rep. Kevin McCarthy, Rep. Steve Knight,  current & former Republican leaders Sen. Jean Fuller and Bob Huff, Asm. Minority Leader Kristin Olsen, and a lengthy list of state and local figures. Campaign Consultant: Andy Gharakhani (New Majority)



CAMPAIGN FINANCE REPORTS: Bayliss • Fazio • Kamenir-Reznik • Pollock • Stern • Thomas


Independent Expenditure Activity (Updated 06-03): TOTAL IE SPENDING $1,067,081.29


Committee in Support of Shawn Bayliss for CA State Senate 2016 $79,504.76 IN SUPPORT OF Shawn Bayliss

California Dental Association Independent Expenditure PAC $186,960.95 IN SUPPORT OF Janice Kamenir-Reznik

California Dental Association Independent Expenditure PAC $49,497.09 IN OPPOSITION TO Henry Stern

California Apartment Association Independent Expenditure Committee $107,514.45 IN SUPPORT OF Janice Kamenir-Reznik

CALIFORNIA REAL ESTATE INDEPENDENT EXPENDITURE COMMITTEE - CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS $179,771.97 IN OPPOSITION TO HENRY STERN

Million More Voters, Sponsored by the California Labor Federation, AFL-CIO $463,832.07 IN SUPPORT OF Henry Stern


CAMPAIGN 2012: At the beginning of the election cycle, it seemed that this would be a hard-fought contest between two incumbent state Senators, Democrat Fran Pavley and Republican Tony Strickland. However, Strickland decided to run in the new CD26 after Rep. Elton Gallegly announced that he was retiring at the end of his term this year. (He lost to Asm Julia Brownley.)

GOP Asm. Cameron Smyth took a serious look at running for the Senate seat, but decided against it. The Senate Republican leadership, wishing to target this race, recruited Los Angeles County deputy district attorney Todd Zink to run. Pavley and Zink were the only two candidates enter the June Primary, and to the surprise of many, Zink outpolled Pavley 51% - 49%.

The race between the two did become a top target, with both the Democratic and Republican Senate leaderships pulling out all stops to fund their candidates. Pavley was able to raise and spend over $2.8 million, Zink, $2 million. Several independent expenditure committees played in this race spending a combined $2 million in support of or opposition to the candidates. 

At the end, Pavley won the race by a decisive margin, mirroring the margins the district gave Obama and Feinstein.

Pavley’s campaign consultants: SG& A Campaigns (Parke Skelton, Steve Barkan); polling: Goodwin Simon Victoria Research.

Pavley TV ad ... view  • Zink TV ad ... view


INDEPENDENT EXPENDITURE COMMITTEE ACTIVITY

   GENERAL ELECTION:

    Support

    Opposition


    PRIMARY ELECTION:


DISTRICT PROFILE: This district includes Democratic western portions of Los Angeles County and GOP portions of eastern Ventura County.  The partisan differences follow the county line nearly perfectly and the senators from each side of the line have been ideological opposites, from Sheila Kuehl and Fran Pavley in the L.A. portion, to Tom McClintock and Tony Strickland, on the Ventura side.  

The most conservative portions of the district are along the 118 freeway in Ventura County, including the community of Simi Valley.  The most liberal portions are Los Angeles neighborhoods of the San Fernando Valley at the opposite end of the district.


DISTRICT MAP


©2016 California Target Book.  Federal copyright law prohibits unauthorized reproduction of this page and imposes large fines for violations.

 

2016-01-07

SD27 (Open Seat) - 6th Democrat Enters Race

Janice Kamenir-Reznik is the latest candidate to throw her hat into the ring in the increasingly crowded race to succeed Senator Fran Pavley, who is termed out of her 27th Senate District seat in 2016. Kamenir-Reznik is the founder of Jewish World Watch, a leading organization in the fight against genocide and mass atrocities. She previously practiced law as a partner with Jeffer, Mangels, Butler, and Marmaro. During the 1970s, she served as Executive Director of the Commission on Soviet Jewry for the Jewish Federation. She has served as the President of California Women Lawyers, as President of the California Women's Law Center, as a trustee of the Los Angeles County Bar and of the California State Bar's Trust Fund, and currently serves on the Los Angeles County Economy and Efficiency Commission. Senator Pavley recognized her as 2014 Woman of the Year for her 27th Senate District. She holds a bachelor's from UCLA, a masters in Social Work from USC, a masters in Jewish Nonprofit Management from Hebrew Union College, and a JD from UCLA. She resides in Encino with her husband, Benjamin. They have three grown children. Campaign Manager: Marc Litchman.  She has been endorsed by former Los Angeles Supervisor Zev Yaroslavsky and Los Angeles Supervisor Sheila Kuehl, who both switched from endorsing Henry Stern after Kamenir-Reznik entered the race. Stern, senior policy advisor to Senator Pavley, still retains her endorsement. He recently reported raising over $680K at year's end, a figure that will likely place him at the head of the pack in fundraising terms. Other candidates in the race include Moorpark City Councilman David Pollock, newspaper publisher George C. Thomas, software engineer and Democratic Party activist Richard Matthews, Shawn Bayliss, Director of Planning & Land Use for L.A. City Councilman Paul Koretz, and the lone Republican in the race, Steve Fazio, an L.A. Fire Commissioner. One other Democrat, Jim Dantona, Jr, the chief of staff to L.A. Council Member Nury Martinez, dropped out late last year. While this district has a Democratic bias during Presidential years, the fractured field will likely result in only one Democrat advancing from the top-two primary to face Fazio in November. For more on this district, click here.

Read More
Tags: SD27, Janice Kamenir-Reznik, Fran Pavley


©2016 California Target Book.  Federal copyright law prohibits unauthorized
reproduction of this page and imposes large fines for violations.

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