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August
16, 2007
TARGET BOOK UPDATES
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CD4 (R-Doolittle):
MIKE
HOLMES, 66, a GOP
moderate and a member of the Auburn City Council, has officially
announced that he will again challenge incumbent GOP congressman
JOHN DOOLITTLE. Holmes
challenged Doolittle in the 2006 primary election, running on a
platform in support of stem cell research, abortions rights and
opposition to the war in Iraq, receiving 33% of the vote.
Republican ERIC EGLAND,
37, an Air Force reservist from Roseville, is also in this race
(see June 4 Hot Sheet).
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Mike Holmes |
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AD3 (R-Keene):
Republican JACK L. LEE,
60, a former chair of the Butte County Republican Party, has
filed a “statement of intention” (SI) to run for this seat. He
is now a farmer after retiring from 20 years in law enforcement
and spending time as a mediator, arbitrator and Realtor
(Ashley Gebb,
Appeal-Democrat newspaper).
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Photo Requested |
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AD15 (R-Houston):
Democrat JOHN
TAYLOR, 47, an elementary
school teacher and owner of a small painting and handyman
business, filed an SI to run for this seat. Taylor ran for the
Elk Grove USD school board in 2002, coming in third in a field
of three (running against an incumbent) and also ran
unsuccessfully in 2000 for community college trustee. Taylor
is the sixth Democrat (along with 5 Republicans) to file an SI
for this seat.
A poll commissioned by Republican San Ramon
Mayor
ABRAM WILSON and
conducted by Probolskey Research
of 300 likely voters taken July 11-12 (margin of error +/- 5.8%)
shows Wilson with a significant lead in name recognition over
his GOP challengers, with a name ID of 23% (21% positive; 2%
negative). SCOTT KAMENA,
whose father is the mayor of Livermore, came in second with a
10% ID (8% positive and 2% negative). The others are mostly
unknown.
The
incumbent, Republican Guy Houston,
has announced that he will not seek reelection to his assembly
seat next year, regardless of the outcome of the term limit
extension initiative that will be on the Feb. 5th
Presidential Primary (will run for Contra Costa Board of
Supervisors). |
John Taylor
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AD19 (D-Mullin):
As expected, Democrat GINA PAPAN
has made it official and has filed an SI to run for this seat.
Papan, who is the daughter of the late Asm. Lou Papan,
ran for this seat in 2002 (see Target Book for details on
that race).
Gina
Papan was elected to the Millbrae City Council in 2005 and is
currently a deputy attorney general for the CA Dept. of Justice,
Criminal Division/Correctional Law Section. Papan received her
bachelor’s in Business/Economics from UC Santa Barbara and a law
degree from the University of the Pacific’s McGeorge School of
Law. Democratic consultant Richie Ross (Ross Communications) is managing the campaign.
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Gina Papan |
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AD78 (R-Horton):
Republican RAUL DAVID BEJARANO,
the former United States Marshal of the Southern District of CA
(appointed by Pres. Bush in 2003) and the former Chief of Police
for the city of San Diego -- where over 60% of the district's
population resides -- has filed an SI to run for this seat.
A graduate of National University (San Diego), Bejarano is
currently chairman of the board of La Cuna, a San
Diego-based non-profit that works to place Latino foster
children in proper homes.
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Raul David Bejarano |
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AD80 (R-Garcia):
Democrat RICK GONZALES
released his first fundraising report this week, showing $31,392
cash on hand. Democratic consultant Frank G. Salazar, who managed the past campaigns of Cong. Bob Filner, is managing the
Gonzales effort. |
Rick Gonzales |
FIELD POLL
– CA PRESIDENTIAL PRIMARY
The
Field Poll today released the
results of their resent survey of 348 CA voters who are likely to vote
in the state’s Feb. 5th Republican
presidential primary. The telephone survey, conducted in both English
and Spanish, was conducted August 3-12;
margin of error +/- 5.4%.
In the numbers
shown below, the first number is the percent of votes each candidate
received in the latest Aug. survey, follow by the percent of the vote
each candidate received in a similar Field Poll taken in
March 2007.
| Candidate |
August 2007 |
March 2007 |
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Giuliani
|
35% |
34% |
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Romney
|
14% |
7% |
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F. Thompson
|
13% |
8% |
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McCain
|
9% |
24% |
|
Tancredo
|
3% |
3% |
|
Hunter
|
2% |
3% |
|
Huckabee
|
1% |
3% |
|
Brownback
|
1% |
2% |
|
Paul
|
1% |
1% |
|
T. Thompson
|
1% |
NA |
|
UNDECIDED
|
20% |
15% |
The Field
Poll notes that there are large differences in GOP voter preferences
between those who have been closely following the presidential contest
versus those who haven’t. Statewide, one in three (33%) of likely GOP
primary election voters say they are following campaign events “very
closely.” This compares to a little less than half (46%) who are
following the race somewhat closely and 20% who are paying little or no
attention to the election.
Among GOP voters
paying the most attention to the race, Giuliani’s lead over Romney and
Thompson is much narrower than it is among voters who are not as
engaged. For example, among voters who say they’re following the race
very closely, Giuliani’s lead over Romney is just 13 percentage points
and his lead over Thompson is just 15 points. By contrast, among those
who are not closely attending to the contest, Giuliani holds a 31
percentage-point lead over Romney and a 22-point lead over Thompson.
ALLAN HOFFENBLUM, Publisher – AL PROSS, TONY QUINN, DARRY
SRAGOW, Co-Editors.
Copyright 2007 California
Target Book
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